Ether (ETH) has outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of price action and exchange-traded fund (ETFs) flows this week, reinforcing the capital rotation narrative. Over the past two weeks, the spot ETH ETFs recorded $360 million in net inflows versus BTC’s $120 million, signaling a shift in investors’ preference for the time being.
Key takeaways:
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Spot ETH ETFs have attracted 3 times more inflows than BTC, strengthening their relative momentum.
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ETH’s high-time-frame price action exceeds Bitcoin, suggesting that Ether has bottomed.
Retail accumulates Ether, but one more pullback could occur
Data from CryptoQuant noted that the spot average order size metric showed a clear behavioural shift in Ether markets. When ETH dipped below $2,700 on Nov. 21, retail buyers stepped in aggressively, generating a sharp demand-led rebound. This mirrored prior accumulation phases, especially the March–May period, where early retail activity preceded a deeper correction.
Historically, retail-driven bounces at local lows often lead to a final liquidity revisit, shaking out late buyers before a stronger rally emerges. This dynamic suggested ETH may still allow for a controlled pullback to reset positioning and prepare for a more durable upward move.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) currently stands near 0.22, indicating a balanced market, which implies that investors remain in a moderate profit without leaning into euphoria.
Importantly, NUPL has not fallen into negative territory, indicating that holders remain structurally strong, which reduces the probability of further selling pressure. As long as NUPL remained above 0.20, sentiment remained supportive of a rebound once the catalysts aligned.
Related: Bitcoin’s strongest trading day since May cues possible rally to $107K
ETH trumps Bitcoin, for now
From a technical standpoint, Ether exhibited a cleaner high-time-frame (HTF) setup than Bitcoin. ETH recently confirmed a break of structure (BOS) by pushing into a 20-day high above $3,200, showing that buyers have flipped prior resistance and initiated a trend shift.
However, BTC still needed a decisive daily close above $96,000 to confirm its own breakout, leaving ETH in structural advantage.
The ETH/BTC daily chart further strengthened this advantage. The pair recently broke above a 30-day consolidation zone, a range where supply repeatedly capped upside attempts.
The breakout was supported by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a trend baseline that has held firm since July. Historically, ETH/BTC reclaiming the 200-day SMA and breaking a multi-week range has aligned with periods of sustained ETH outperformance.
If BTC stabilizes above $94,000 and secures a close above $96,000, it would alleviate further overhead pressure for the altcoin. In that scenario, ETH is well-positioned to extend its newly established uptrend by retesting the $3,650 swing high, and, if momentum accelerates, targeting the next expansion level at $3,900, i.e., another 20% from current prices, where external liquidity clusters currently sit.
Related: Bitcoin rejects at key $93.5K as Fed rate-cut bets meet ‘strong’ bear case
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
